Before I get into the big bowls I want to talk about the conference championship weekend. There is so much going on in the polls that it needs to be talked about. Going into the final weekend I have the top 4 as Alabama, USC, Oklahoma State and LSU. Alabama is in the SEC championship and LSU is left out, but is still sitting in 4th. Unfortunately the next 4 teams behind LSU in the rankings are all in conference championship games and that pretty much guarantees that they'll fall out of the playoff. The next 4 teams behind LSU all have a chance at making it into the playoff. The way I have it ranked is 5 Virginia Tech, 6 Wisconsin, 7 Washington, 8 Penn State. The worst case scenario is if Virginia Tech, Wisconsin and Washington all win their conference titles. Then you have to slot 3 teams into 2 slots because USC would fall out, and suddenly you're nit-picking each of these teams schedules.
The true nightmare scenario though would be Alabama, USC and Oklahoma State all losing their title games, then you have all 4 spots open and 7 teams all claiming that they should be in. Fortunately for the committee I think it works out pretty easily. Alabama USC and OSU all win with VT, Washington, and Penn State losing their title games. That leaves Wisconsin as the easy pick for the 4th slot.
As for the Group of 5 slot for the New Year's 6 games, I have SMU in the lead going into the final weekend, but I also think that they lose the conference championship game. This opens the door for USF to sneak in and steal the spot. Since the committee put the G5 winner in the Cotton Bowl last year I guessed that they wouldn't do that again this year, so that means USF goes into the Peach Bowl.
All of the other bowls fell into place with LSU going to the Orange against ACC champ FSU, Pac 12 title game loser Washington going to the Fiesta Bowl against Michigan in the Fiesta bowl. I have Penn State going to the Peach because it's closer for them and then they can beat up on USF in that game. That just leaves the Cotton Bowl, I thought Virginia Tech would fall to there and then there is a tough decision on who to pick as their opponent. It came down to picking an SMU (with two losses including a loss in the conference championship game), a 2 loss Ohio State team (but there are already 3 Big Ten teams in the NY6), or a one loss team BYU (who has a win over one of the playoff teams). So after debating for awhile I went with BYU because of the win over Wisconsin.
Before I get into who I picked for the playoff I want to go over my rules for how to predict the College Football playoff teams without having to pick every single game. First you pick Alabama. Second you pick a team from the Top 5 of the preseason poll. Third you pick a team in the Top 10 of the Preseason poll. So if you want to pick two teams in the top 5 that's fine. Then fourth, you'll pick a team that is outside the top 10. Luckily for me the picks I made ended up following these rules.
Picking the match ups for the playoffs was pretty easy based off of the schedule, and while I'm sure the Rose Bowl would prefer Wisconsin to play USC in Pasadena, I have the teams ranked 1. Alabama, 2. USC, 3. Oklahoma State, 4. Wisconsin. So that sets up Alabama vs Wisconsin in the Sugar Bowl, and USC vs OSU in the Rose Bowl. Alabama and Wisconsin should be closer than expected. By this point in the year Wisconsin's defense will be back at full strength. They will be able to limit Alabama's offense a little bit, but Wisconsin's offense will struggle with Alabama's defense.
In the Rose Bowl I have Oklahoma State upsetting USC. I picked this because I believe in OSU's defense. I think it is much better than people expect them to be and that USC's defense will struggle with the Cowboy's offense. USC is the better team in my opinion but OSU is just a bad match up for them. I do think that if they played this 10 times USC would win 7 of them, but for the sake of upsets I went with OSU. Unfortunately this sets up Alabama vs OSU for the National Championship, and no matter how good OSU's offense is they can't score consistently against Alabama to win. This is a blowout with Bama winning by 35.
So for the first time I tried to project all of the bowl games. This was way harder than I thought it would be, and I'm pretty sure I messed it up somewhere, but oh well. People have been trying to predict the future for a long time and we're pretty bad at it. So now here is each bowl game and the match up I predicted.
New Orleans Bowl
Georgia State vs Southern Miss
Cure Bowl
Cincinnati vs Indiana (5-7)
Las Vegas Bowl
#13 Boise State vs Colorado
New Mexico Bowl
San Diego State vs Virginia
Camellia Bowl
Toledo vs South Alabama
Boca Raton Bowl
Louisiana Tech vs UCF
Frisco
Houston vs Buffalo (5-7)
St. Petersburg Bowl
#17 SMU vs #18 Western Kentucky
Bahamas Bowl
#11 Old Dominion vs #14 Central Michigan
Potato Bowl
Wyoming vs Akron
Birmingham Bowl
Temple vs Tennessee
Armed Forces Bowl
Army vs Western Michigan
Dollar General
#19 Georgia Southern vs Kent State
Hawaii Bowl
Hawaii vs Memphis
Cactus Bowl
Oregon State vs Texas
Quick Lane
Iowa vs Pittsburgh
Heart of Dallas Bowl
UTSA vs Charlotte
Independence Bowl
Duke vs Colorado State
Pinstripe Bowl
Nebraska vs Syracuse
Texas Bowl
West Virginia vs Texas A&M
Foster Farms Bowl
Washington State vs Michigan State
Military Bowl
Louisville vs Navy
Camping World Bowl
#23 TCU vs Georgia Tech
Alamo Bowl
#22 Stanford vs #24 Oklahoma
Holiday Bowl
#21 UCLA vs Northwestern
Belk Bowl
North Carolina vs Vanderbilt
Sun Bowl
Utah vs Miami
Music City Bowl
Kentucky vs NC State
TaxSlayer Bowl
#20 Minnesota vs Auburn
Liberty Bowl
Arkansas vs Kansas State
Arizona Bowl
Air Force vs MTSU
Outback Bowl
#16 Ohio State vs South Carolina
Citrus Bowl
#25 Georgia vs Clemson
Cotton Bowl
#6 Virginia Tech vs #12 BYU
Fiesta Bowl
#8 Washington vs #15 Michigan
Orange Bowl
#5 LSU vs #10 Florida State
Peach Bowl
#7 South Florida vs #9 Penn State
Rose Bowl
#2 USC vs #3 Oklahoma State
Sugar Bowl
#1 Alabama vs #4 Wisconsin
CFP National Championship Game
#1 Alabama vs #3 Oklahoma State
Finally to wrap this whole giant thing up, I'm going to leave you with a link to my google sheet where I picked every single game. That is on sheet 1, the other 2 sheets are where I sorted by conferences, and then picked bowls and the last two top 25 polls. For those of you that don't want to click I'll just post the team and their final record down below. The teams in gold are the conference champions.
Hopefully you all enjoyed this. It was a fun project for me. If you missed the first part where I previewed BYU and Utah's schedule in depth click here, or if you missed the second part where I previewed all of the conferences schedules click here. Please leave a comment below if you want to tell me how wrong I am or (hopefully) have a nice discussion, or you can contact me on twitter @mbishky or @tripleSpodcast.
| Air Force | 8-5 |
| Akron | 7-6 |
| Alabama | 15-0 |
| Appalachian State | 5-7 |
| Arizona | 3-9 |
| Arizona State | 1-11 |
| Arkansas | 8-5 |
| Arkansas State | 4-8 |
| Army | 9-4 |
| Auburn | 7-6 |
| Ball State | 3-9 |
| Baylor | 5-7 |
| Boise State | 12-2 |
| Boston College | 2-10 |
| Bowling Green | 4-8 |
| Buffalo | 5-8 |
| BYU | 12-2 |
| California | 2-10 |
| Central Michigan | 12-2 |
| Charlotte | 7-6 |
| Cincinnati | 7-6 |
| Clemson | 8-5 |
| Coastal Carolina | 6-6 |
| Colorado | 7-6 |
| Colorado State | 7-6 |
| Connecticut | 4-8 |
| Duke | 6-7 |
| East Carolina | 4-8 |
| Eastern Michigan | 5-7 |
| FAU | 3-9 |
| FIU | 4-8 |
| Florida | 4-8 |
| Florida State | 11-3 |
| Fresno State | 2-10 |
| Georgia | 10-3 |
| Georgia Southern | 10-3 |
| Georgia State | 7-6 |
| Georgia Tech | 8-5 |
| Hawai'i | 9-5 |
| Houston | 8-5 |
| Idaho | 3-9 |
| Illinois | 3-9 |
| Indiana | 5-8 |
| Iowa | 7-6 |
| Iowa State | 4-8 |
| Kansas | 2-10 |
| Kansas State | 6-7 |
| Kent State | 10-4 |
| Kentucky | 9-4 |
| Louisiana | 5-7 |
| Louisiana Tech | 10-3 |
| Louisville | 8-5 |
| LSU | 11-2 |
| Marshall | 2-10 |
| Maryland | 2-10 |
| Memphis | 7-6 |
| Miami | 9-4 |
| Miami (OH) | 5-7 |
| Michigan | 11-2 |
| Michigan State | 7-6 |
| Middle Tennessee | 6-7 |
| Minnesota | 10-3 |
| Mississippi State | 4-8 |
| Missouri | 5-7 |
| Navy | 7-6 |
| NC State | 7-6 |
| Nebraska | 9-4 |
| Nevada | 4-8 |
| New Mexico | 3-9 |
| New Mexico State | 4-8 |
| North Carolina | 8-4 |
| North Texas | 4-8 |
| Northern Illinois | 5-7 |
| Northwestern | 9-4 |
| Notre Dame | 4-8 |
| Ohio | 2-10 |
| Ohio State | 11-2 |
| Oklahoma | 10-4 |
| Oklahoma State | 14-1 |
| Old Dominion | 12-2 |
| Ole Miss | 7-5 |
| Oregon | 4-8 |
| Oregon State | 7-6 |
| Penn State | 12-2 |
| Pittsburgh | 6-7 |
| Purdue | 3-9 |
| Rice | 1-11 |
| Rutgers | 4-8 |
| San Diego State | 10-3 |
| San José State | 2-11 |
| SMU | 12-2 |
| South Alabama | 8-5 |
| South Carolina | 8-6 |
| Southern Miss | 8-5 |
| Stanford | 9-4 |
| Syracuse | 7-6 |
| TCU | 10-3 |
| Temple | 10-3 |
| Tennessee | 6-7 |
| Texas | 6-7 |
| Texas A&M | 7-6 |
| Texas State | 5-7 |
| Texas Tech | 5-7 |
| Toledo | 9-4 |
| Troy | 4-8 |
| Tulane | 2-10 |
| Tulsa | 4-8 |
| UAB | 4-8 |
| UCF | 6-7 |
| UCLA | 10-3 |
| ULM | 1-11 |
| UMass | 3-9 |
| UNLV | 5-7 |
| USC | 13-1 |
| USF | 11-3 |
| Utah | 9-4 |
| Utah State | 3-9 |
| UTEP | 4-8 |
| UTSA | 9-4 |
| Vanderbilt | 7-6 |
| Virginia | 7-6 |
| Virginia Tech | 12-2 |
| Wake Forest | 4-8 |
| Washington | 11-3 |
| Washington State | 9-4 |
| West Virginia | 10-3 |
| Western Kentucky | 11-2 |
| Western Michigan | 7-6 |
| Wisconsin | 12-2 |
| Wyoming | 11-2 |